The UK vs. Brexit - How will it recover?

In 2016, the UK made the decision to exit the EU through Brexit, and in 2020, after the process was finalised, the UK was able to “Take Back Control” as was envisaged through the referendum campaign. However, 5 years later, are the UK truly reaping the benefits of freedom from the EU? Roughly 56% of UK citizens think that the decision to leave was a bad one, and approval ratings for the decision are hovering at around 30%. In this article, I intend to dissect the issue and come to a conclusion surrounding the controversy - was the decision right or wrong, and is the path of action for the UK to rejoin?

In the years since Brexit in 2016, the UK has reported a 5% drop in GDP. With inflation rates at 9.0%, the real GDP growth which reflects only changes in the volume of goods and services produced while accounting for inflation was just 0.1% in 2023. £27bn has been lost in EU trade with the UK in the first two years since Brexit and over 40,000 finance jobs have departed. The OBR in 2025 claimed that Brexit will have reduced long-run economic productivity by 4 per cent relative to remaining in the EU, both exports and imports will be around 15 per cent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU. Rejoining the EU could bring £30 billion boost to revenue in the UK and According to estimates by think tanks, during the first decade after returning to the EU, the UK will receive an additional 4-6% in GDP.

Well, the obvious solution to all these dubious economic concerns seems to be simply rejoining the EU. However, in doing so, the UK may have to forfeit other aspects of both its national sovereignty and other aspects of its economic rebuild. Joining the EU for Britain today would likely mean losing the opt-outs which it had as one of the originators. The GBP would be ceased and then the UK would be forced to adopt the Euro as its primary currency which would mean that the UK would lose control of its monetary policy as well as its interest rates, the power over which would be handed to the ECB in Frankfurt. This is a problem because, while the EU does attempt to cater to its nations, it often fails to produce nuanced and individual policy for all 27 of its members leading to broad policy that can be harmful for the economy. The UK would also lose control of border policy to the Schengen and law making power would be given to the ECJ. 

“We need our economy to grow faster, and for people across the country to feel the benefits of that, like other western economies, we haven’t grown quickly enough in recent years.” This quote from former prime minister Rishi Sunak is proof that something needs to change. Unfortunately for the United Kingdom, a clear solution is not in sight. As was discussed, since the referendum, the UK economy has been in shambles, however, is the future looking brighter? As of 2025, the IMF is predicting that the UK will have the fastest growth in the G7 in the next five years. 

In my opinion, the right choice for the UK in 2016 was most certainly to continue to grow under the EU rather than making the abrupt decision to leave. The evidence that this decision was a failure is evident in the crippling effect it has had on all key factors of the economy - GDP, unemployment rates, inflation, etc. However, I do not believe that rejoining the EU will magically resolve the issues that have appeared post-Brexit. This is because the UK will lose the higher status in the EU which it had prior to Brexit and will thus not only surrender key economic privileges but also what it has benefited from through Brexit like sovereignty over law making and border control.

While I believe the path forward for the UK regarding the EU is unclear, I think that fostering trade deals with EU nations like the EU- UK Reset Deal and the TCA that help the UK gain economic access to the markets they lost is a smart decision. This partnered with deals like the CPTTP and AUKUS which open trade routes and defense security to nations beyond the EU it did not have access to before will definitely help with recovery.

I also think the UK should worry less choosing between the EU or going without it, and more about how it balances its position between the EU, the US, and the Asia-Pacific bloc in a world no longer dominated by a single economic power. This balance is the key to the UK’s recovery as depending on its positioning, it will open new markets to target and opportunities to utilise trade with other fast growing economies to bolster its own.

As a whole, the decision made by the UK in 2016 to leave the EU was certainly one that can only be described as faulty. However, the decision as to whether rejoining the EU is beneficial is a far more complicated debate. All in all, I believe that the future for the United Kingdom is unclear, sacrifice economic and policy sovereignty for economic stability, or trust the process and continue along a path that may lead to further economic collapse. The past is clear, but the future less so - how should the UK recover from the detrimental impact of Brexit?